COVID Third Wave: Are We Alert?

COVID has been there with us for the last one-and-a-half years, but in every region, there have been periods of surge that have been followed by a relative lull. In India untill now, there have been two very well defined periods of surge, divided by an extended lull.

Having experienced the severity of the second wave of COVID infections, health authorities and officials are now consistently alarming people of the possibility of a third wave. It began earlier this month with K Vijay Raghavan, Principal Scientific Advisor, Govt of India, calling the third wave ‘inevitable’, though its timing could not be forecasted. Vijay Raghavan added a caveat after two days, stating a third wave could be escaped through ‘strong measures,’ but several others have expressed similar warnings in the last few weeks. Some hospitals and local administrations have already begun building up their infrastructure in anticipation of a new surge in cases after a few months.

How to identify?

The third wave presently under discussion refers to a possible hike in COVID cases at the national level. The national curve seems to have entered a diminishing stage now, after being on a peak in the month the first week of May. In the past two weeks, the per day case count has gone down to about 2.6 lakh from the peak of 4.14 lakh, whereas the active cases have dropped to 32.25 lakh, after touching a height of 37.45 lakh. If the present trend continues, it is predicted that by July, India would reach the similar level of case counts like in February.

If there is a new surge after that and persists for a few months or weeks, it would get defined as the third wave. Meanwhile, states could continue to witness local surges. The way it is happening in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu right now. Or at a more local level, in the districts of Sangli,

Amravati and a few others in Maharashtra. But as long as they are not strong enough to deviate the direction of the national curve, they would not be categorised as the third wave. Also, the more localised would be the surge, the quicker it is likely to go away, although cities like Pune and Mumbai have gone through prolonged surges.

Can it be escaped?

The advent of a third wave of COVID is a clear possibility. It is expected to come, although the timing or intensity is not something that can be predicted. But it cannot be considered as inevitable. The Principal Scientific Advisor, Vijay Raghavan, also clarified his remarks, saying that it could possibly be avoided if citizens continue to take strong measures. It is also possible that this time, the new wave will be indeed much shorter than the previous one so that it lays much less pain and can be handled more efficiently.

A lot of this would completely depend on how people take note of these warnings. They can become paranoid about the incoming crisis or get numb to repeated warnings. The second wave has left us with the learning that it is much better to remain cautious and paranoid than be hopeful in a situation like this.