Global Burden Of Type 1 Diabetes Set To Almost Double By 2040: Lancet Study

Type 1 diabetes is slowly creeping up its prevalence in the world, as a recent study published in the Lancet journal reveals that by 2040, the total number of type 1 cases are set to almost double globally. In 2021, the estimated type 1 diabetes cases in the world were pegged at around 8.4 million, this number is projected to rise to anywhere between 13.5 million to 17.4 million cases, an estimated rise of 60 per cent to 107 per cent by 2040 as per the study. 

In type 1 diabetes the immune system starts attacking insulin producing beta cells of the pancreas, a condition where pancreas produce little or no insulin which results in a chronic disease known as type 1 diabetes. Actual causes of the disease still remain unknown though scientists and experts believe that the disease is caused by genes and environmental factors, for instance the viruses which may trigger the disease.

"The cause of Type 1 diabetes is  autoimmunity  (the body attacks itself and destroys its own cells) different factors, such as genetics and some viruses, may trigger an autoimmune reaction, the exact cause of type 1 diabetes is still unknown, genetics and environmental factors may influence the pathogenesis, leading to autoimmune destruction of pancreatic beta-cells," said Dr Aarti Ullal- Consultant, Endocrinology at Global Hospital, Parel, Mumbai.

A joint study conducted by Gabriel A Gregory, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia and Thomas IG Robinson, JDRF Australia, St Leonards, NSW, Australia said that of the 8.4 million individuals with type 1 diabetes in 2021 in the world, 18 per cent (1.5 million) were younger than 20 years of age and 64 per cent (5.4 million) were in the age group of 20 to 59 years. 

The study reveals that the median age of onset of the disease was 39 years in 2021, and out of 0.5 million cases that were diagnosed in the year globally 35,000 people died within 12 months of the symptomatic onset. The type 1 diabetes which is uncommon than the type 2 diabetes still remains more fatal than its counterpart.

The study further notes that the life expectancy of an individual suffering from type 1 diabetes considerably decreases if the individual resides in a low or lower- middle economies. One fifth (1.8 million) of the total individuals with type 1 diabetes are present in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. The remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old diagnosed with type 1 diabetes in 2021 ranged from a mean of 13 years in low-income countries to 65 years in high-income countries while the missing prevalent cases in 2021 were estimated at 3.7 million. The study predicts the low-income and lower-middle-income countries will see a relatively larger increase than developed nations.

“The burden of type 1 diabetes in 2021 is vast and is expected to increase rapidly, especially in resource-limited countries. Most incidents and prevalent cases are adults. The substantial missing prevalence highlights the premature mortality of type 1 diabetes and an opportunity to save and extend lives of people with type 1 diabetes,” the study said. 

Prevalence In India

India being a lower middle economy will certainly bear the brunt of the rising cases, as the country is already known as the diabetes capital of the world, the increase in type 1 diabetes cases will only add to the surmounting burden of overall diabetes prevalence of the country with the socioeconomic groups bearing most of the pain of type 1 diabetes.

Dr Amrita Ghosh, consultant, Diabetology and Endocrinology, Fortis C-Doc Hospital says that type 1 diabetes prevalence and incidence is quite high in India, but as we do not have a nationwide registry for type 1 diabetes an exact number is hard to decipher though as per the International Diabetes Federation’s fact sheet it is estimated that almost 2.5 lakh individuals in the paediatric age group have type 1 diabetes in India, including children and adolescents.

“India is definitely witnessing an exponential increase in type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes patients and a fairly younger population is getting diagnosed. And when this number increases there will be low social economic groups in our country who would need support to afford insulin, so the country needs to prepare a plan to come up with resources for lower socioeconomic groups in the country,” Dr Ghosh added.